With election day just over 8 months away, Emerson College’s February 27 poll shows incumbent Mayor Michelle Wu with a strong lead of 43%. Her only major current challenger, billionaire philanthropist Josh Kraft, trailed behind at 29%, leaving 24% undecided and 4% in favor of “someone else.”
In favorability, Wu leads Kraft significantly – 56% to 27%. Wu’s advantage can be explained by her incumbency as well as Kraft’s relative obscurity in Boston politics, having only moved to the city last year. 36% surveyed reported being unsure or having no opinion on Kraft, with an additional 13% having never heard of him in the first place.
Demographic breakdowns show Wu as strongest with Hispanic and Asian voters at 54% and 58%, respectively. Black and White voters are split more evenly between the candidates, with Wu leading slightly with the former and Kraft the latter.
When it comes to making the city more affordable, it is a much closer race, with Wu at 37% and Kraft at 25%. 31% surveyed, however, believe neither candidate will do much to lower the cost of living.
On the issues, 56% believe Boston is “on the right track” overall, with the MBTA at 61% and Boston Public Schools at a close 46% approval.
The White Stadium development was found to be overwhelmingly popular, with 53% in favor to only 22% opposed, and 26% unsure.
The park’s demolition and upcoming construction have proven to be the first flashpoint of this election cycle. Wu’s administration has been criticized for greenlighting the project, and her opponent has jumped at the opportunity to score some early populism points.
“Sixty-eight percent of voters who support Mayor Wu for reelection also support the redevelopment of White Stadium, while Kraft supporters are more split: 38% oppose the redevelopment, while 35% support it,” Kimbal explains.
The 2014 Boston Trust Act, baring local police from turning undocumented persons over to federal authorities solely for their immigration status, sits with a 51% approval rating.
“Support for the city immigration policy varies by racial background,” said Executive Director Spencer Kimball. “65% of Hispanic voters approve of the Boston Trust Act, along with 57% of Asian and 55% of Black voters. White voters are more split: 44% approve and 40% disapprove of the policy.”
The city’s ability to accommodate migrants seeking refuge falls much closer at 49% ye to 51 nay, underscoring Boston’s already tenuous job and housing markets.
There are still many unknowns that will shape November’s election. As of today, we do not even know Kraft’s complete platform or how Wu’s March 5 testimony to the House Oversight Committee might affect the race. If you are going to take anything away from this data, maybe consider running yourself. With nearly a third surveyed still considering their candidate, if not hoping for a different one altogether, there may be room for some fresh perspectives. The race is still early, with deadlines for Statements of Candidacy not due until May 13.
